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Trade Ideas

Local Trade Idea: WeBuyCars Holdings Limited (WBC) - BUY

 

Peet Serfontein & Zimele Mbanjwa

We initiate a long position with a target price of R51 and recommend a stop-loss at R40.

WeBuyCars Holdings Limited is a South African company specialising in the acquisition, reconditioning, and sale of pre-owned vehicles. The group operates an integrated model that combines nationwide physical supermarkets with a proprietary digital platform to deliver a seamless, omni-channel customer experience.

The company also provides a broad suite of value-added services, including finance facilitation, insurance solutions and fitment products. The business trades from around 18 supermarkets and 106 buying pods across the country, supported by expanding infrastructure and data-driven capabilities that enhance convenience, scale and customer accessibility.

An AI-driven multi-horizon price forecasting framework also supports a bullish bias as its expected price path trends higher across horizons (see the larger insert on the main chart). The model's forecast and widening upper band indicate improving return potential, while the lower band defines risk if key support levels fail.

The price is trading above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of ~ R51.33. The start of upside price momentum, according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, and the recent upwards trajectory according to the On-balance volume (OBV), support our bullish view.

Share Information
Share Code WBC
Industry Consumer Discretionary Distribution
Market Capital (ZAR) 17.99 billion
One Year Total Return -4.81%
Return Year-to-Date -9.97%
Current Price (ZAR) 43.06
52 Week High (ZAR) 60.85
52 Week Low (ZAR) 32.26
Financial Year End September
The share price has eased so far this year; however, technical indicators are currently pointing to an uplift in the near term.

Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg)
FY25 FY26E FY27E FY28E
Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) 2.25 2.62 3.23 3.75
Growth (%) 16.65 23.40 15.93
Dividend Per Share (ZAR) 0.00 0.82 1.00 0.82
Growth (%) - 21.95 -18.00
Forward PE (times) 16.44 13.32 11.49
Forward Dividend Yield (%) 1.90 2.32 1.90
Current market forecasts are pricing in near- to medium-term earnings growth in the double digits.

Buy/Sell Rationale:

Technical Analysis:

    • The lower panel shows occurrences of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) super signal. A reading of one indicates when such a signal occurred. Frequent super signals indicate repeated bullish momentum resets followed by fresh acceleration. A super signal occurs when a bullish MACD crossover near the zero line is later confirmed by a move above it, signalling a shift into a structurally positive momentum phase. Consistent occurrences show buyers absorbing pullbacks, reinforcing a persistent bullish regime and increasing the probability of continued upside.
    • Our recommended entry range for this trade is between R42.60 to R44.40 - a drop below this range would indicate a structural change in the trend, giving reason to negate the idea.
    • Our target price is R51, representing upside of ~17.1% from current levels.
    • Our proposed time to exit is mid-May 2026, though investors can adjust for either a longer or shorter time horizon, depending on price behaviour.
    • A drop below R40 (downside of ~8.0% from current levels) would imply weakening technicals. As such, a stop-loss is recommended at this level.
    • We expect high volatility going forward and suggest a medium capital at-risk allocation to this trade. Increase exposure for a break above R44.

Fundamental view:

    • WeBuyCars operates two segments: its primary Buyer, Distributor and Retailer of Vehicles division, which generates most of the revenue, and a smaller Property Rental segment contributing ancillary income. Vehicle trading remains the dominant driver, with property rental playing a supporting role.
    • The company uses its proprietary technology and valuation tools (incorporating big data, machine learning, and AI) to determine a fair and objective acquisition price. Together with its buying-staff expertise, it can provide reasonable quotes to sellers (in short turnaround times), which are often converted into fulfilled sales. A key feature of its data-driven technology is that vehicle valuations are not necessarily static but are able to adapt to changing market fundamentals in real time.
    • In 2025, WeBuyCars' website attracted approximately 7 million monthly visits and 2.3 million unique users, demonstrating powerful brand strength and digitally enabled deal flow. Its national network of buying pods and more than 12 900 parking bays enables high-volume, decentralised operations.
    • WeBuyCars buys and sells more than 180 000 vehicles annually, reflecting strong operational momentum and consumer trust. According to TransUnion data, used-vehicle financing continues to outpace new-vehicle financing by 1.6 times. WeBuyCars accounts for 10% to 12% of used-car registrations, indicating substantial market penetration with room to expand.
    • In FY25, vehicle purchases and sales grew 7.7% and 8.4% respectively, while headline earnings rose 15%, supported by higher selling prices, improved margins, and strong inventory turns. The number of vehicles bought and sold remained healthy and market share gains continued. The company's balance sheet remains conservatively geared, supported by high cash conversion rates.
    • WeBuyCars is in an aggressive growth cycle, expanding supermarkets across high-traffic regions. New and upgraded facilities (e.g., Rustenburg, Vereeniging, George, Polokwane, Mbombela, and large Cape Town and Pretoria sites) significantly enhance throughput. These expansion plans support the company's target of ~23% market share and ~23,000 monthly unit sales by FY28.
    • In more recent developments, WeBuyCars announced that it had entered into a series of agreements to acquire a total of 49% in GoBid, a digital auction platform that focuses on the buying and selling of accident-damaged, uneconomic-to-repair and second-hand vehicles, for R376.8 million. The acquisition makes strategic sense for WeBuyCars given that the company currently utilises GoBid and is fully aligned with WeBuyCars' strategic objective of servicing the entire South African vehicle market.
    • Industry conditions such as falling interest rates and a recovery in consumer confidence further support volumes across both cash and financed purchases.
    • Risks to our fundamental view include economic and interest-rate sensitivity, execution challenges linked to its aggressive expansion, and reputational issues stemming from vehicle quality concerns and weak after-sales service. Competition remains a threat, with emerging rivals potentially eroding market share in a trust-dependent used-vehicle sector.

Share Name and Position Entry Current Price Movement Comment Time to exit
VAL SA - Buy
(Continue to hold)
1 479.42 1 525.23 +3.1% Strong historical upside skew and recovery momentum remain supportive, with the price holding above its 200-day simple moving average. However, fading upside momentum tempers conviction. The profit target is maintained at R1 822, with a stop-loss at R1 330 and trailing stop at R1 447. 25 May 2026
AVI SA - Buy
(Continue to hold)
111.12 114.42 +3.0% Relative-performance positioning keeps the share attractive. It remains above its 200-day SMA, with upside momentum supporting the trade thesis. We retain a R125.00 target, with a trailing stop-loss at R112. 22 June 2026
BTI SA - Buy
(Continue to hold)
944.40 992.59 +5.1% A developing bullish pennant remains constructive, with the price holding above its 200-day SMA. However, emerging downside momentum warrants caution. We retain a R1 042 target, and a trailing stop at R967. 6 April 2026
MTM SA - Buy
(Continue to hold)
36.80 39.28 +6.7% The established pattern of rising troughs and successive upward impulses remains constructive, with the price holding above its 200-day SMA. Upside momentum resumed. We maintain a R42 target, and a trailing stop-loss at R38.30. 22 June 2026

Share Name and Position Entry Current Price Movement Comment Time to exit
SLM SA - Buy
(Continue to hold)
94.83 106.22 +12% Note pending time to exit. Based on its historical pattern of strong follow-through after recovery years and the improving return profile into 2025, the probability of continued upside in 2026 remains of interest. The share is holding above its 200-day SMA, supported by the resumption of upside price momentum. Our target is R110, and the trailing stop loss is R103. 24 February 2026

FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd, a subsidiary of FirstRand Bank Limited, an authorised Financial Services Provider and authorised user of the JSE limited (Reg no: 1996/011732/07). This Publication note is issued by FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd for the information of clients only and should not be produced in whole or part without prior permission. Although FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd is an Authorised Financial Services Provider, any opinions and/or analysis contained in this Publication are for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice, including but not limited to financial, legal or tax advice, or a recommendation to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources/persons which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed for correctness, completeness or otherwise and we do not assume liability for loss arising from errors in the information or that may be suffered from using or relying on the information contained herein irrespective of whether there has been any negligence by us, our affiliates or any other employees of us, and whether such losses be direct or consequential. As market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, any comments, opinions, and analysis is rendered as of the date of publishing and may change without notice. Such changes may have a material impact on the outcome of any investment. Securities involve a degree of risk and are volatile instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future performances. Securities or financial instruments mentioned in the Publication note may not be suitable for all investors and FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd has bares no responsibility whatsoever arising from or as a consequence hereof. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any share, instrument, sector, region, market, country, investment, or strategy. The recipient of this Publication must make their own investment decision and is advised to contact his relationship manager for a personal financial analysis prior to making any investment decisions. Copyright 2018 by FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd.

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