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Trade Ideas

Global Trade Idea: ServiceNow Inc. (NOW) - BUY

 

By Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene

ServiceNow is a US-based enterprise software company that designs, develops, and markets a cloud computing platform to help companies manage digital workflows for enterprise operations. The company serves customers worldwide with a strong presence in North America.

Headquartered in Santa Clara, California, the company, through its Now Platform, specialises in cloud-native workflow automation that enables organisations to digitise and automate business processes across IT, HR, customer service, security and more. The Now Platform helps business leaders realise value from these investments by incorporating advanced technology into the flow of work, end-to-end across the enterprise, for every department and persona.

Technically, the main chart depicts a clear Elliott Wave structure, showing alternating peaks and troughs consistent with cyclical price movements. The emergence of Wave one signals a shift in momentum from accumulation to early expansion, confirming renewed buyer interest and strengthening market sentiment.

Seasonal trends support a bullish bias. Historically, average monthly returns for NOW since 2000 suggests a seasonally supportive period from November through January.

Fading downside price momentum per the MACD histogram and the recent sideways trajectory of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator also supports our bullish view.

Share Information
Share Code NOW
Industry Software & Services
Market Capital (USD) 195.09
One Year Total Return -1.59%
Return Year-to-Date -11.53%
Current Price (USD) 937.91
52 Week High (USD) 1 198.09
52 Week Low (USD) 678.66
Financial Year End December
The price is testing its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) from below, which also supports a bullish case for the stock

Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg)
FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
Headline Earnings per Share (USD) 13.92 16.95 19.91 23.94
Growth (%) 21.77 17.45 20.26
Dividend Per Share (USD) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Growth (%) - - -
Forward PE (times) 55.33 47.11 39.18
Forward Dividend Yield (%) 0.00 0.00 0.00
Medium-term growth prospects remain positive, with momentum expected to be sustained over the next few financial periods.

Buy/Sell Rationale:

Technical Analysis:

    • The lower panel shows occurrences of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) bullish divergence signals. A reading of one indicates when such a bullish divergence signal occurred. A bullish divergence signal on the RSI typically occurs when the share price continues to record lower lows, yet the RSI indicator forms higher lows. This discrepancy highlights a weakening of downside momentum and reflects the gradual return of buying interest.
    • Our recommended entry range is $912.00 to $964.00, or as close as possible to $937.91 - a drop below this range would indicate a substantial change in price dynamics, giving reason to negate the trade idea.
    • Our target price is $1 070.00, representing ~14.1% upside from current levels.
    • According to forward calculations of the RSI indicator, the stock will be overbought at $1 100.00, making our profit target realistic.
    • Our proposed time to exit is early-January 2025, but investors can adjust for a longer or shorter time horizon, depending on price behaviour.
    • A drop below $885.00, or 5.6% below current levels, would suggest weakening technicals and a stop-loss is recommended at this level.
    • We expect moderate price fluctuations and suggest a medium at-risk allocation for this trade. Increase exposure for a break above $964.00.

Fundamental view:

    • ServiceNow operates primarily through its Now Platform, which is segregated across four main workflows namely Technology Workflows, Employee Workflow, Customer & Industry Workflow as well as Creator Workflow.
    • While the Now Platform is the company's biggest product, they also offers ServiceNow Impact which provides customers with AI-based software tools that offer recommendations that help increase adoption of ServiceNow solutions within their organisations.
    • ServiceNow has ~8 400 enterprise customers that operate in a wide variety of industries, including government, financial services, healthcare, manufacturing, IT services, technology, telecommunications, and consumer products.
    • NOW recently acquired a cloud-native enterprise data catalogue and governance platform, Data.World. This acquisition will enable ServiceNow to leverage its technology by helping organizations make their data "AI-ready" by organising and enabling easy search.
    • In 3Q25 (released last night), the company comfortable topped Wall Street estimates on the top and bottom lines. Revenue increased by 22% y/y driven by solid annuity type subscription revenue growth. Earnings per share increased by 15.9%.
    • Management's outlook was positive, and it bumped up its full-year guidance for subscription revenue growth after a similar adjustment at the 2Q25 mark.
    • The company also approved a five-for-one stock split set to occur at the start of Decembe.
    • From a risk perspective, the company is faced with intensifying competition as it expands into new markets like Customer Relationship Management (CRM) and HR software. Competitors like Salesforce and SAP are moving into ServiceNow's traditional areas. Regulatory requirements surrounding data privacy and security need to be upheld and any data breaches may have material consequences.

Share Name and Position ETN - Buy
(Continue to hold)
ADTN - Buy
(Continue to hold)
ABNB - Buy
(Continue to hold)
Entry 334.86 9.28 122.89
Current Price 376.01 10.29 128.01
Movement +12.3% +10.9% +4.2%
Comment A price developing wave b of the Elliott Wave price theory remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Muted downside price momentum is supportive.

Our profit target is $395.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $352.00.
The ability of the price to hold firm around historically active trading ranges remains of interest. Crossed above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside price momentum is supportive.

Our profit target is $11.50 with a trailing stop-loss at $8.50.
A developing symmetrical triangle pattern remains of interest. Testing its 200-day simple moving average. Fading downside price momentum is supportive.

Our profit target is $141.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $119.80.
Time to exit 28 April 2026 22 December 2025 29 December 2025

Share Name and Position KR - Buy
(Continue to hold)
OTIS - Buy
(Continue to hold)
COST - Buy
(Continue to hold)
Entry 66.88 91.43 937.50
Current Price 67.69 91.30 924.16
Movement +1.2% -0.1% -1.4%
Comment A developing rising wedge pattern remains of interest. Continues to test its 200-day simple moving average. Fading downside price momentum is supportive.

Our profit target is $76.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $63.60.
The formation of a developing symmetrical triangle pattern remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA. Upside price momentum is supportive.

Our profit target is $100.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $88.00.
A developing bullish pennant pattern remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day simple moving average. Fading downside price momentum is supportive.

Our profit target is $1 038.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $898.00.
Time to exit 26 January 2026 17 December 2025 16 January 2026

<
Share Name and Position KMI - Buy
(Continue to hold)
Entry 26.74
Current Price 26.08
Movement -2.5%
Comment The combination of a sustained uptrend in price and supportive AI-based forecasts remains of interest. Dipped below its 200-day simple moving average. Downside price momentum is a concern.

Our profit target is $30.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $25.40.
Time to exit 7 November 2025

FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd, a subsidiary of FirstRand Bank Limited, an authorised Financial Services Provider and authorised user of the JSE limited (Reg no: 1996/011732/07). This Publication note is issued by FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd for the information of clients only and should not be produced in whole or part without prior permission. Although FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd is an Authorised Financial Services Provider, any opinions and/or analysis contained in this Publication are for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice, including but not limited to financial, legal or tax advice, or a recommendation to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources/persons which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed for correctness, completeness or otherwise and we do not assume liability for loss arising from errors in the information or that may be suffered from using or relying on the information contained herein irrespective of whether there has been any negligence by us, our affiliates or any other employees of us, and whether such losses be direct or consequential. As market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, any comments, opinions, and analysis is rendered as of the date of publishing and may change without notice. Such changes may have a material impact on the outcome of any investment. Securities involve a degree of risk and are volatile instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future performances. Securities or financial instruments mentioned in the Publication note may not be suitable for all investors and FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd has bares no responsibility whatsoever arising from or as a consequence hereof. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any share, instrument, sector, region, market, country, investment, or strategy. The recipient of this Publication must make their own investment decision and is advised to contact his relationship manager for a personal financial analysis prior to making any investment decisions. Copyright 2018 by FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd.

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