By Peet Serfontein & Motheo Tlhagale
OUTsurance Group holds a majority stake in OUTsurance Holdings. OUTsurance is one of South Africa's leading short-term and life insurance providers, offering innovative personal, business, and health insurance products through a direct-to-consumer model. Known for its customer-centric approach and features like the popular OUTbonus reward for claim-free clients, the group leverages technology and data analytics to deliver competitive premiums and efficient service.
The business also operates internationally through Youi in Australia and OUTsurance Ireland, launched in 2024, positioning it as a trusted and growing presence in global insurance markets.
Technically, consecutive bullish price swings make the share an interesting candidate for a long position (refer to the insert). The heatmap shows a clear and recurring rhythm between bullish (green) and bearish (red) phases over 2025, suggesting that the share has maintained a balanced but active trading cycle throughout the year. Notably, the recent pattern implies that buying momentum is strengthening, while selling pressure is easing.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the completion of wave a suggests selling pressure has eased, paving the way for a potential wave b rebound. This counter-trend phase often brings renewed optimism and partial price recovery, which could mark the start of a short-term recovery, possibly extending beyond the previous wave five peak.
Fading downside momentum on the weekly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram indicates that selling pressure is weakening and bearish momentum is losing strength. This view is reinforced by the Coppock Curve, which has begun to turn upward from below zero. Together, these indicators suggest that the share may be entering the early stages of a bullish reversal, with growing upside potential following a period of consolidation.
We suggest a low to medium capital at-risk allocation to this trade. Increase exposure for a break above R76.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | OUT |
| Industry | Insurance |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 114.03 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 28.93% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 15.01% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 73.70 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 80.92 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 58.88 |
| Financial Year End | June |
| The share is finding support at its 200-day SMA (simple moving average) near R72.71, indicating strong buying interest and reinforcing long-term bullish sentiment. This level also aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, strengthening the case for continued upside momentum. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 3.03 | 3.48 | 3.94 | 4.39 |
| Growth (%) | 14.84 | 13.09 | 11.42 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 2.71 | 2.63 | 2.97 | 3.17 |
| Growth (%) | -2.88 | 13.05 | 6.76 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 21.16 | 18.71 | 16.79 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 3.57 | 4.03 | 4.31 | |
| Earnings are expected to remain strong over the medium term, with consistent double-digit growth projected. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Long term fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | CLS SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
AEL SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
ARI SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 365.58 | 19.03 | 184.00 |
| Current Price | 375.42 | 18.19 | 175.23 |
| Movement | +2.7% | -4.4% | -4.8% |
| Comment | A gross dividend of R6.48 trades ex-dividend on 21 January 2026. The Elliott Wave one structure remains valid, with a price above its 200-day SMA and fading downside momentum being supportive. Target: R413.00; initial stop-loss: R347.00; trailing: R357.00. | A developing bullish pennant remains in focus, though the price is still below the 200-day SMA, making this a counter-trend setup. Fading downside momentum supports the trade. Target: R23.00; initial and trailing stop-loss: R17.50. | A developing falling wedge pattern remains of interest, with price holding just above the 200-day SMA. Sudden downside momentum poses a concern to the setup. Target: R227.00; initial and trailing stop-loss: R167.00. |
| Time to exit | 18 March 2026 | 22 December 2025 | 17 December 2025 |
| Share Name and Position | VOD SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
ANH SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
SHP SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 132.90 | 1 031.56 | 278.33 |
| Current Price | 136.70 | 1 056.48 | 289.43 |
| Movement | +2.9% | +2.4% | +4.0% |
| Comment | A period of low volatility suggests market stability and possible accumulation. The price remains above the 200-day SMA, with fading downside momentum supporting the setup. Target: R157.00; initial stop-loss: R123.00; trailing: R125.00. | Price action remains firmly within the upward-sloping linear regression channel, though still below the 200-day SMA, making this a counter-trend setup. Fading downside momentum supports the trade. Target: R1 255.00; initial stop-loss: R942.00; trailing: R967.00. | Price development within a well-established inclining channel remains of interest. The price is above the 200-day SMA, with firm upside momentum supporting the strategy. Target: R312.00; initial stop-loss: R265.00; trailing: R276.00. |
| Time to exit | 11 February 2026 | 17 February 2026 | 09 December 2025 |
| Share Name and Position | DCP SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|
| Entry | 32.60 |
| Current Price | 33.95 |
| Movement | +4.1% |
| Comment | Approaching a time-based exit, the developing symmetrical triangle pattern remains of interest. The price is holding just above the 200-day SMA, with muted upside momentum offering partial support. Target: R37.00; initial stop-loss: R31.00; trailing: R32.30. |
| Time to exit | 29 October 2025 |
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