By Peet Serfontein & Motheo Tlhagale
Clicks Group is a health and beauty-focused retail and supply group. Through its market-leading retail brands, Clicks, Sorbet, Claires and The Body Shop, the group has hundreds of stores across southern Africa, while United Pharmaceutical Distributors (UPD) provides distribution capability for the group's healthcare strategy and has close to a third of market share in private pharmaceutical wholesale in South Africa.
With a strategic focus on expanding its footprint and growing its private label offering, Clicks has maintained a resilient performance over time amid economic headwinds, supported by strong cash generation and defensive demand for healthcare products and services. Further to this, Clicks is characterised by its strong growth, high return on equity, strong cash conversion and solid strategic execution.
Technically, a developing Elliott Wave one structure makes the share an interesting candidate for a long position (see the insert on the main chart). The emergence of Wave one often marks a pivotal shift in market sentiment, typically following a period of consolidation or corrective decline. If accompanied by rising volume and sustained support at key levels, Wave one may suggest the start of a more durable recovery.
The rising Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram on the weekly chart signals weakening selling pressure and fading bearish momentum. Paired with higher lows, this points to growing upside potential. Meanwhile, a sideways on-balance volume (OBV) indicates steady accumulation and limited selling, often preceding a breakout as demand quietly builds.
We suggest a medium capital at-risk allocation to this trade. Increase exposure for a break above R375.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | CLS |
| Industry | Consumer Staples Distribution |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 86.66 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 1.18% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 1.11% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 368.93 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 405.39 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 313.82 |
| Financial Year End | August |
| The price is currently testing its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at R363.97, indicating a key support level where buyers may step in to defend the long-term trend and renew upward momentum. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 11.94 | 13.63 | 15.35 | 17.24 |
| Growth (%) | 14.18 | 12.64 | 12.31 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 7.76 | 8.82 | 9.93 | 11.13 |
| Growth (%) | 13.71 | 12.49 | 12.17 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 27.07 | 24.04 | 21.40 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 2.39 | 2.69 | 3.02 | |
| Earnings growth is expected to remain robust over the forecast term. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | CFR SA - Take Profit (Close the position) |
TBS SA - Take Profit (Close the position) |
AEL SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 2 980.00 | 304.50 | 19.03 |
| Current Price | 3 500.79 | 341.32 | 18.35 |
| Movement | +17.5% | +12.1% | -3.6% |
| Comment | The stock is close to our take profit level, and we have opted to close the trade. | The stock is close to our take profit level, and we have opted to close the trade. | A developing bullish pennant supports a counter-trend strategy below the 200-day SMA. Fading downside momentum reinforces the setup. Profit target remains R23.00, with a stop set at R17.50. |
| Time to exit | 22 December 2025 |
| Share Name and Position | ARI SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
VOD SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
AANH SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 184.00 | 132.90 | 1 031.56 |
| Current Price | 185.57 | 134.87 | 1 077.59 |
| Movement | +0.9% | +1.5% | +4.5% |
| Comment | A developing falling wedge pattern remains of interest above the 200-day SMA. Fading downside momentum supports the trade setup. Profit target is maintained at R227.00, with a trailing stop at R168.00. | A low-volatility phase suggesting market stability and possible accumulation remains of interest above the 200-day SMA. Fading downside momentum supports the trade setup. Profit target is R157.00, with a trailing stop at R125.00. | Price action holding within the upward-sloping regression channel remains of interest, despite being below the 200-day SMA, making this a counter-trend setup. Fading downside momentum supports the strategy. Profit target is R1 255.00, with a trailing stop at R988.00. |
| Time to exit | 17 December 2025 | 11 February 2026 | 17 February 2026 |
| Share Name and Position | SHP SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
DCP SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|
| Entry | 278.33 | 32.60 |
| Current Price | 287.74 | 33.15 |
| Movement | +3.4% | +1.7% |
| Comment | Price development within a well-established inclining channel remains of interest above the 200-day SMA. Renewed upside momentum supports the trade strategy. Profit target is R312.00, with a trailing stop at R274.00. | Approaching a time-based exit, the price action forming a symmetrical triangle remains of interest just above the 200-day SMA. However, fading upside momentum poses a concern. Profit target is R37.00, with a trailing stop at R31.50. |
| Time to exit | 09 December 2025 | 29 October 2025 |
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