By Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene
Anglo American is a global mining company that mines bulk commodities including iron ore, manganese, and metallurgical coal, and base metals such as copper and nickel. The company has operations in Africa, Europe, North and South America, Asia and Australia.
Technically, a price in a developing W-bottom pattern makes the share an interesting candidate for a long position (see the black W-pattern on the main chart). This pattern signals the potential end of a downtrend and the beginning of a trend reversal. It is characterised by two distinct lows separated by a moderate peak, indicating that selling pressure is weakening and buyers are gradually gaining control amid improving market sentiment and growing demand.
A price consolidation in a value zone also supports a bullish bias. The price distribution chart over the past five years (see the insert) reveals that the current price lies within the most frequently traded range. This area of high volume indicates a consolidation base where buyers and sellers have previously found equilibrium. If the price holds above this range and breaks out with volume, this may signal growing bullish sentiment and a shift toward a new value area at higher levels.
Strong upside momentum, according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram and the recent sideways trajectory of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator, supports a bullish case for the share.
We suggest a medium capital at-risk allocation to this trade. Increase exposure for a break above R568.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | AGL |
| Industry | Materials |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 642.91 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 2.14% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 1.46% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 545.74 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 585.62 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 410.40 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| The price is sandwiched between its 200-day and 200-week simple moving averages (SMAs) with the level of the 200-day being R538.73, suggesting that short- to medium-term support remains intact, and that buyers are defending this level. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 1.82 | 0.87 | 1.83 | 2.06 |
| Growth (%) | -51.89 | 109.50 | 12.56 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 0.73 | 0.37 | 0.74 | 0.89 |
| Growth (%) | -48.94 | 99.46 | 20.27 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 34.94 | 16.68 | 14.82 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 1.21 | 2.42 | 2.91 | |
| Medium-term growth prospects remain positive, with momentum expected to improve over the next few financial periods. Near-term profitability will be impacted by recent divestments. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Long-term Fundamental view
| Share Name and Position | GRT - Buy (Continue to hold) |
VAL - Buy (Continue to hold) |
RDF - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 13.22 | 850.00 | 4.69 |
| Current Price | 14.20 | 875.00 | 4.74 |
| Movement | +7.4% | +2.9% | +1.1% |
| Comment |
The price is in one of its highest price bins within its price distribution. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside momentum is somewhat supportive.
Our profit target is R16 with a trailing stop-loss at R12.60 |
A price that is developing a rounding-top pattern remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Upside momentum has halted.
Our profit target is R1 063 with a trailing stop-loss at R742. |
A price in a developing triangle remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Upside momentum has halted, which is a concern.
Our profit target is R5.30 with a trailing stop-loss at R4.50. |
| Time to exit | 17 November 2025 | 10 September 2025 | 1 September 2025 |
| Share Name and Position | STXFIN - Buy (Continue to hold) |
BVT - Buy (Continue to hold) |
BID - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 21.75 | 239.73 | 458.43 |
| Current Price | 21.18 | 232.79 | 441.50 |
| Movement | -2.6% | -2.9% | -3.7% |
| Comment |
A price above major support remains of interest. Remains just above its 200-day SMA. Fading upside momentum is a concern.
Our profit target is R25 with a trailing stop-loss at R20.50. |
A price at the lower range of an inclining linear regression channel pattern remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA. Upside momentum has halted which is a concern.
Our profit target is R274 with a trailing stop-loss at R226. |
The combination of a sustained bounce off the lower one standard deviation band, ongoing support from the broader upward trend and signs of renewed buying interest remain of interest although it has dipped below its 200-day SMA. Downside momentum is a concern.
Our profit target is R528 with a trailing stop-loss at R431. |
| Time to exit | 15 September 2025 | 1 September 2025 | 30 August 2025 |
| Share Name and Position | COH - Buy (Continue to hold) |
TFG - Buy (Continue to hold) |
WBO - Stop loss (Close the position) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 882 | 13069 | 18464 |
| Current Price | 836 | 12200 | 17200 |
| Movement | -5.2% | -6.6% | -6.8% |
| Comment |
The price at a key distribution level remains of interest, though it continues to trade below its 200-day SMA, framing this as a counter-trend strategy.
We maintain our profit target at R10.50, with a stop-loss set at R8.20. |
The price is in a developing symmetrical triangle but below its 200-day SMA, making this a counter-trend setup. Momentum has stalled.
We retain our target at R159, with our stop-loss set at R121. |
The share breached our stop-loss level, prompting us to close the position. |
| Time to exit | 22 August 2025 | 13 November 2025 |
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