By Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene
The Foschini Group is an investment holding company with a core business focus on retail and financial services. The group comprises several brands trading throughout southern Africa including Foschini, @Home, Sterns, Totalsports, Sportscene and Jet, among others. The group also owns Phase Eight and Whistles in the United Kingdom, and RAG in Australia.
Fundamentally, the company is the market leader locally in 'quick response' manufacturing and has the design and manufacturing capability to lead the market from a stock perspective, while their geographic footprint, product, and diversification across target markets adds a defensive component to the business. This company, along with its discretionary retail peers, could benefit from easier consumer conditions near term.
Technically, a price in a developing symmetrical triangle pattern makes the share an interesting candidate for a long position (see the black converging trendlines on the main chart). This pattern reflects a period of consolidation where neither buyers nor sellers are in clear control, resulting in converging trendlines. As the price coils within the narrowing range, it often builds up momentum for a decisive breakout.
Price stability at high-frequency levels per the price distribution histogram also supports a bullish case for the share (see the insert). The last recorded price marked at R130.17 is within one of the most frequently occurring price ranges, indicating a zone of historical price stability and accumulation, supporting our bullish stance.
Muted upside momentum, according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram indicator, supports our bullish stance.
We suggest a medium capital at-risk allocation to this trade. Increase exposure for a break above R138.00.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | TFG |
| Industry | Consumer Discretionary |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 42.4 billion |
| One Year Total Return | -1.27% |
| Return Year-to-Date | -22.34% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 128.20 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 178.67 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 102.45 |
| Financial Year End | March |
| The price is sandwiched between its 200-week and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 10.07 | 11.52 | 13.25 | 15.02 |
| Growth (%) | 14.35 | 15.07 | 13.35 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 3.90 | 4.40 | 5.05 | 6.02 |
| Growth (%) | 12.92 | 14.67 | 19.15 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 10.64 | 9.29 | 8.54 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 3.44 | 3.94 | 4.69 | |
| Medium-term growth prospects remain positive with strong momentum expected over the next few financial periods. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Long-term Fundamental view
| Share Name and Position | NTC - Time to exit (Close the position) |
GRT - Buy (Continue to hold) |
VAL - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 1414 | 13.22 | 850.00 |
| Current Price | 1349 | 14.26 | 880.50 |
| Movement | -4.6% | +7.9 | +3.6% |
| Comment | The trade reached our time exit date and we closed the position. |
A price in one of the highest price bins of the price distribution analysis remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is R16 with a trailing stop-loss at R12.65. |
A price forming a rounding top remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside momentum supports the trade.
Our profit target is R1 063.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R742.00. |
| Time to exit | 21 July 2025 | 17 November 2025 | 10 September 2025 |
| Share Name and Position | RDF - Buy (Continue to hold) |
BID - Buy (Continue to hold) |
BVT - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 4.69 | 458.43 | 239.73 |
| Current Price | 4.80 | 456.85 | 237.91 |
| Movement | +2.3% | -0.3% | -0.8% |
| Comment |
A price forming a triangle pattern remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Upside price momentum supports the trade.
Our profit target is R5.30 with a stop-loss at R4.50 and a trailing stop at R4.55. |
The price is bouncing off the lower one standard deviation band and continues to test its 200-day SMA. While downside momentum is a concern, renewed buying interest supports the trade.
Our profit target is R528.00 with a trailing stop at R431.00. |
The price is at the lower end of an inclining regression channel which remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA. Renewed upside momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is R274.00 with a trailing stop at R226.00. |
| Time to exit | 1 September 2025 | 30 August 2025 | 1 September 2025 |
| Share Name and Position | COH - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|
| Entry | 8.82 |
| Current Price | 8.69 |
| Movement | -1.5% |
| Comment |
A price at a key distribution level remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day simple moving average. Upside price momentum has halted which is a concern.
Our profit target is R10.50 with a trailing stop-loss at R8.20. |
| Time to exit | 22 August 2025 |
FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd, a subsidiary of FirstRand Bank Limited, an authorised Financial Services Provider and authorised user of the JSE limited (Reg no: 1996/011732/07). This Publication note is issued by FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd for the information of clients only and should not be produced in whole or part without prior permission. Although FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd is an Authorised Financial Services Provider, any opinions and/or analysis contained in this Publication are for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice, including but not limited to financial, legal or tax advice, or a recommendation to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources/persons which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed for correctness, completeness or otherwise and we do not assume liability for loss arising from errors in the information or that may be suffered from using or relying on the information contained herein irrespective of whether there has been any negligence by us, our affiliates or any other employees of us, and whether such losses be direct or consequential. As market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, any comments, opinions, and analysis is rendered as of the date of publishing and may change without notice. Such changes may have a material impact on the outcome of any investment. Securities involve a degree of risk and are volatile instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future performances. Securities or financial instruments mentioned in the Publication note may not be suitable for all investors and FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd has bares no responsibility whatsoever arising from or as a consequence hereof. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any share, instrument, sector, region, market, country, investment, or strategy. The recipient of this Publication must make their own investment decision and is advised to contact his relationship manager for a personal financial analysis prior to making any investment decisions. Copyright 2018 by FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd.
