By Peet Serfontein, Khumbulani Kunene
We enter a long position with a target price of $310 and a stop-loss of $243.
NXP Semiconductors is a global leader in semiconductor technology. The company develops and supplies chips and integrated solutions for the automotive, industrial, Internet of Things (IoT), mobile, and communications infrastructure markets. Headquartered in the Netherlands, the NXP combines semiconductor innovation with software, security expertise, and system-level solutions to serve manufacturers and technology companies worldwide.
Technically, the favourable De-trended Price Oscillator (DPO) makes the stock an interesting candidate for a potential long position (see insert on the main chart). This pattern highlights that the DPO's sharp rise above the +2 standard deviations in 2026 was followed by a steep retreat below zero. The current negative reading could provide scope for a recovery if the oscillator stabilises and turns higher, signalling that downside pressure is easing and strengthening the case for a new upswing.
The stock is in the accumulation phase out of the Wykoff Price Cycle (see the smaller insert on the main chart). This pattern suggests that buying demand may be absorbing available selling pressure while the price trades within a base. If successive lows are rising and support continues to hold, it can indicate that buyers are becoming more active, further supporting the bullish stance.
The start of upside price momentum according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram and the recent steep upwards trajectory of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator, supports our bullish view.
Share performance
Share information
| Share Code | NXPI US |
| Industry | Semiconductors |
| Market Capital (USD) | 65.9 billion |
| One-Year Total Return | 31.22% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 22.10% |
| Current Price (USD) | 261.56 |
| 52-Week High (USD) | 339.95 |
| 52-Week Low (USD) | 183.00 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| The price appears to be using its 200-day and 200-week simple moving average (SMA) as support, which suggests that the medium- and long-term trend structure remains positive. | |
Consensus expectations (Bloomberg)
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Earnings per Share (USD) | 11.81 | 15.25 | 18.51 | 21.46 |
| Growth (%) | 29.11 | 21.36 | 15.96 | |
| Dividend Per Share (USD) | 4.06 | 4.10 | 4.48 | 4.98 |
| Growth (%) | 1.13 | 9.12 | 11.25 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 14.49 | 12.42 | 12.19 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 1.57 | 1.71 | 1.90 | |
| The company is set to deliver strong double-digit earnings growth and stable dividends growth in the medium term, supported by rising semiconductor content in vehicles, accelerating adoption of industrial and IoT technologies, and growing demand for secure connectivity and edge computing solutions across end markets. | ||||
Buy/sell rationale
Technical analysis:
Fundamental view:
Update on previous trade ideas
| Share name and position | Entry | Current price | Movement | Comment | Time to exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VST - Stop-loss (Close position) | 139.03 | 112.89 | -18.8% | Price hit stop-loss level. Exit trade. | |
| LOW - Buy (Close position) | 198.53 | 231.87 | +16.8% | The stock reached our profit target, so we closed the position. | |
| TXN - Buy (Continue to hold) | 264.42 | 300.52 | +14.1% | The rebound from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement remains of interest. Remains above the 200-day SMA. The start of upside momentum is supportive. Our profit target is maintained at $322.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $287.00. | 17 November 2026 |
| ISRG - Buy (Continue to hold) | 422.06 | 450.04 | +6.6% | The price at the lower range of an upsloping linear regression remains of interest. Crossed above its 200-day SMA. Upside price momentum is a concern. Our profit target is maintained at $506.00 with a trailing stop-loss at ~$418.00. | 30 December 2026 |
| SYK - Buy (Continue to hold) | 310.55 | 324.29 | +4.4% | A price that appears to be bouncing off the lower range of an inclining channel remains of interest. Testing its 200-day SMA. Upside price momentum is supportive. Our profit target is maintained at $371.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $290.00. | 27 January 2027 |
| RL - Buy (Continue to hold) | 391.25 | 394.40 | +0.8% | Favourable AI and Average True Range zones remain of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Upside price momentum is supportive. Our profit target is maintained at $450.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $371.00. | 10 March 2027 |
This trade idea can be actioned through FNB Global Trader by visiting shares.fnb.co.za.
