By Peet Serfontein & Mmamosa Khanye
We enter a long position with a target price of R1 950.00 and a stop-loss of R1 320.00.
AngloGold Ashanti conducts mining operations in Africa, North America, South America and Australia, and undertakes exploration activities worldwide. In addition, the company is involved in the manufacturing, marketing, and selling of gold products, as well as the development of markets for gold.
Technically, a favourable seasonal backdrop makes the share an interesting candidate for a long (buy) position (see larger insert on the main chart). The share has historically delivered its strongest seasonal performance between November and March, with January standing out as the best month on average. While this seasonal trend supports a bullish outlook, it should be viewed alongside current price action and other technical indicators before making investment decisions.
The AI model and Average True Range (ATR) upward forecast also supports the trade idea. The AI forecast suggests some near-term weakness but remains constructive over the medium-to-longer term, with projections rising from R1 354 after one month to R2 895 over one year. Despite the positive long-term outlook and potential upside indicated by the ATR ranges, the expected volatility and initial pullback highlight the importance of managing downside risk.
Halted downside price momentum as reflected by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), which supports our bullish stance, however, the recent steep downward trajectory of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator is a concern.
Share performance
Share Information
| Share Code | ANG |
| Industry | Materials |
| Market Capital (USD) | 790 billion |
| One-Year Total Return | 37.95% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 12.93% |
| Current Price (USD) | 1 561.90 |
| 52-Week High (USD) | 2 146.73 |
| 52-Week Low (USD) | 1 216.07 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| The price remains just below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), a key indicator of the long-term trend. Holding above this level supports a positive outlook and suggests the SMA may provide support for the trade idea. | |
Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg)
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Earnings per Share (USD) | 5.37 | 8.59 | 9.34 | 9.59 |
| Growth (%) | 59.98 | 8.73 | 2.26 | |
| Dividend Per Share (USD) | 3.57 | 4.55 | 4.80 | 5.78 |
| Growth (%) | 27.63 | 5.47 | 20.34 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 10.27 | 9.92 | 9.89 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 4.80 | 5.06 | 6.09 | |
| The company is set to deliver a sharp earnings and dividend rebound in FY26, followed by more moderate growth through FY28, alongside a falling P/E and rising dividend yield. | ||||
Buy/sell rationale
Technical analysis:
Fundamental view:
Updated on previous trade ideas
| Share name and position | Entry | Current price | Movement | Comment | Time to exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLH - Stop-loss (Close position) | 4.50 | 4.25 | -5.6% | The share reached its stop-loss, so the position was closed in line with the risk-management plan. | 11 January 2027 |
| BTI - Buy (Possible take profit) | 877.50 | 1 045.14 | +19.1% | The developing-top pattern remains of interest. The share is above its 200-day SMA. Upside momentum supports the trade idea. Our target price remains R1 060.00 with an initial stop-loss of R825.00 and a trailing stop of R1 015.00. | 30 November 2026 |
| WBO - Buy (Possible take profit) | 145.00 | 161.50 | +11.4% | The price action is bouncing from the lower boundary of an upward-sloping linear regression channel, keeping the setup interesting. The share is testing its 200-day SMA. Upside momentum supports the idea. Our target price remains R167.00 with a trailing stop-loss of R157.00. | 18 January 2027 |
| LHC - Close position (Time exit) | 11.79 | 12.93 | +9.9% | The share reached its predetermined time-exit date, and the position was subsequently closed. | 9 November 2026 |
| QLT - Buy (Continue to hold) | 38.74 | 42.21 | +9.0% | The price action within an upward-sloping linear regression channel remains of interest, with the share just above its 200-day SMA. Fading downside momentum supports the trade idea. Our target price remains R44.00 with a trailing stop-loss of R41.50. | 30 November 2026 |
| OUT - Buy (Continue to hold) | 86.63 | 89.85 | +3.7% | A potential Elliott Wave 5 advance remains of interest, with the share above its 200-day SMA. Upside momentum supports the trade. Our target price remains R99.00 with a trailing stop-loss of R87.80. | 25 January 2027 |
| SHC - Buy (Continue to hold) | 31.88 | 32.81 | +2.9% | The price action near a high-volume zone remains of interest, with the share above its 200-day SMA. Upside momentum supports the idea. Our target price remains R37.50 with a trailing stop-loss of R30.90. | 4 January 2027 |
This trade idea can be action through FNB Local Trader by visiting shares.fnb.co.za.
