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Trade Ideas

International Trade Idea: Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR US) - BUY

 

By Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene

We enter a long position with a target price of $175.00 and a stop-loss of $117.00.

Palantir Technologies Inc. is a technology company that offers software platforms and services to help public, private, and non-governmental organizations worldwide gain insights into their data through data analysis. The company also provides artificial intelligence (AI) platform for building AI-powered workflows, agents, and functions.

Founded in 2003, the company initially focused on supporting intelligence and defence agencies before expanding into industries such as healthcare, energy, manufacturing, financial services and logistics. Its flagship platforms (Gotham, Foundry, Apollo and the Artificial Intelligence Platform [AIP]) enable organisations to integrate vast amounts of data, automate complex workflows, deploy AI securely and improve operational decision-making.

Technically, the price at the lower range of Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO) indicator presents an attractive buying opportunity (see the insert on the main chart). This pattern identifies shorter-term price cycles by removing the longer-term trend and the current depressed reading suggests that the recent decline may be approaching the latter stages of its downward cycle.

The price also appears to be in the Accumulation phase out of the Wyckoff Price Cycle, supporting the bullish bias. This phase is typically characterised by diminishing selling pressure and improving market participation.

Fading downside momentum according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator also supports our bullish view; however, the gradual downward trajectory of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator is a concern.

Share Performance

Share Information

Share CodePLTR US
IndustrySoftware & Services
Market Capital (USD)320.6 billion
One-Year Total Return-10.00%
Return Year-to-Date24.77%
Current Price (USD)133.72
52-Week High (USD)207.52
52-Week Low (USD)106.37
Financial Year EndDecember
The price remains below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), suggesting that the long-term trend has yet to confirm a decisively bullish reversal.

Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg)

FY25FY26EFY27EFY28E
Headline Earnings per Share (USD)0.751.472.083.03
Growth (%)96.0041.4246.08
Dividend Per Share (USD)0.000.000.000.00
Growth (%)---
Forward PE (times)74.4751.6244.07
Forward Dividend Yield (%)0.000.000.00
The company is set to deliver strong double-digit earnings growth over the medium term.

Buy/Sell Rationale

Technical Analysis

    • The lower panel shows occurrences of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) bullish divergence signals. A reading of one indicates when such a signal occurred. This pattern remains supportive of the bullish case and suggests that downside momentum is weakening, despite the recent pullback. While the price has continued to decline, the RSI has formed a higher low (see the insert), indicating that selling pressure is losing intensity and that the rate of the decline is slowing.
    • Our recommended entry range is $129 to $137, or as close as possible to $133.72 - a drop below this range would indicate a substantial change in price dynamics, giving reason to negate the trade idea.
    • Our target price is $175 representing ~30.9% upside from current levels.
    • According to forward calculations of the RSI indicator, the share will be overbought at $230, making our profit target realistic.
    • Our proposed time to exit is the end of September 2026, but investors can adjust for a longer or shorter time horizon, depending on price behaviour.
    • A drop below $117, or 12.5% below current levels, would suggest weakening technicals, and a stop-loss is recommended at this level.
    • We expect moderate price fluctuations and suggest a medium at-risk allocation for this trade. Increase exposure for a break above $137.00.

Fundamental view

    • Palantir Technologies operates primarily through two segments, namely Government (~52% of revenue; includes serving government agencies worldwide, including United States (US) defence, intelligence, and civil agencies, as well as allied foreign governments), and Commercial (~48% of revenue; focuses on private sector clients and commercial enterprises across industries like healthcare, energy, financial services, logistics, and automotive).
    • Palantir primarily leverages the Palantir Gotham platform to manage complex military intelligence, national security, and defence operations.
    • Palantir Foundry and the Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) are primarily used to serve as an operational software layer for large businesses, driven by massive corporate demand for AI scaling, with the Commercial segment is expanding rapidly.
    • The company generates revenue from long-term software subscriptions, implementation services and ongoing platform support, benefitting from high client retention and increasing enterprise adoption of AI-driven solutions.
    • Palantir's surging AI demand has seen the company, shatter its performance metrics, with significant US business growth driving strong full-year revenue projections.
    • In 1Q26, revenue surged 85% to $1.63 billion underpinned by strength in the US market. This was further supported by commercial traction, which signalled increasing penetration beyond early adopters, while government demand remained resilient, supported by defence-related programmes.
    • Looking ahead, management revised its full-year guidance and anticipates revenue to be between $7.65 and $7.66 billion (up between 70.9% and 71.2%), and adjusted operating profit is expected to come in at between $4.44 and $4.45 billion (up 97.0% and 97.4%).
    • From a risk perspective, the company is exposed to intense AI and data platform competition amid a rapid proliferation of models from AI leaders like OpenAI and Anthropic, which reduces the entry barrier for building customized internal analytics workflows. Additionally, structural political shifts heavily endanger the company's pipeline.

Update on previous Trade Ideas

Share Name and position EntryCurrent PriceMovementCommentTime to exit
VMC - Buy (Continue to hold)268.94291.89+8.5%The combination of supportive long-term trend dynamics, improving momentum conditions and favourable mean-reversion characteristics remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Fading upside momentum is a concern. Our profit target is maintained at $314.00 with a trailing stop-loss at ~$281.70. 19 August 2026
MA - Buy (Continue to hold)513.60538.02+4.8%The price at the lower range of an inclining linear regression channel pattern remains of interest. Crosses above its 200-day SMA. Upside momentum is supportive. Our profit target is maintained at $570.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $526.00. 2 September 2026
UBER - Buy (Continue to hold)72.3372.08-0.3%The combination of the price at the lower range of an inclining channel pattern and the development of a double-bottom pattern remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA. Upside momentum halted, which is a concern. Our profit target is maintained at $85.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $67.00. 11 August 2026
SYK - Buy (Continue to hold)329.74311.07-5.7%The price at the lower range of an inclining linear regression channel pattern remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA. Upside momentum has halted, which is concern. Our profit target is maintained at $401.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $309.00. 14 October 2026

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