By Peet Serfontein & Motheo Tlhagale
Investec is an international specialist bank that provides a range of financial products and services to a niche client base in its core geographies, being the United Kingdom (UK) and South Africa. The company is dual listed on the Johannesburg and London Stock Exchanges.
Investec is well positioned with its established platforms in the UK and South Africa to show decent earnings growth over time.
Technically, an upward-tilted broadening-top pattern reflects resilient buying interest and underlying strength, making the share a compelling candidate for a long position (see the insert on the main chart).
The tilt indicates persistent buying despite volatility, with each rally surpassing the previous peak, signalling underlying market strength and consistent demand. If confirmed by indicators like rising volume or trendline support, this formation may reflect a resilient bullish structure rather than a reversal warning.
Investec's historical seasonality supports a bullish case, with a consistent pattern of strong performance in the fourth quarter of the calendar year following a typically weaker September. Since 2000, the share has shown a tendency to rebound sharply in October (+3.3%) and November (+4.0%), with December (+0.5%) also contributing modest gains. This recurring year-end strength, potentially driven by factors like portfolio rebalancing and dividend flows, provides a constructive backdrop for a bullish strategy from October onwards.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | INL |
| Industry | Financial Services |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 127.67 billion |
| One Year Total Return | -8.15% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 12.42% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 135.46 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 142.90 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 97.14 |
| Financial Year End | March |
| The share is trading above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), signalling that the long-term trend is upward. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26E | Y27E | FY28E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (GBP) | 0.79 | 0.82 | 0.90 | 0.99 |
| Growth (%) | 4.18 | 8.75 | 10.17 | |
| Dividend Per Share (GBP) | 0.37 | 0.39 | 0.42 | 0.46 |
| Growth (%) | 6.85 | 7.69 | 9.52 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 6.99 | 6.42 | 5.83 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 6.78 | 7.31 | 8.00 | |
| Sustained earnings growth over the medium term is expected. The dividend yield is attractive. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view
| Share Name and Position | STXFIN - Time exit (Close the position) |
SHP - Buy (Continue to hold) |
CFR - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 21.75 | 278.33 | 2 980.00 |
| Current Price | 22.02 | 288.71 | 3 243.00 |
| Movement | +1.2% | +3.7% | +8.8% |
| Comment | The trade has left our time exit date and we opted to close the position. |
Trades ex-dividend on 23 September 2025. The price action remains within an inclining channel, testing regression support and above the 200-day SMA.
Upside momentum supports a profit target of R312.00, with a trailing stop-loss of R275.00. |
Trading ex-dividend on 17 September 2025. Wave one formation under Elliott theory is of interest, with the price testing the 200-day SMA.
Fading downside momentum supports a profit target of R3 517.00, and a trailing stop loss at R3 029.00. |
| Time to exit | 9 December 2025 | 28 April 2026 |
| Share Name and Position | DCP - Buy (Continue to hold) |
TBS - Buy (Continue to hold) |
SBK - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 132.60 | 304.50 | 233.57 |
| Current Price | 32.95 | 300.00 | 239.31 |
| Movement | +1.1% | -1.5% | +2.5% |
| Comment |
A symmetrical triangle pattern remains of interest, with the 200-day SMA continuing to provide a key test.
We maintain a profit target at R37.00, and a trailing stop-loss at R31.30. |
Strong price action supported by a rising VPT and sustained accumulation highlights further upside potential after consolidation, with price holding above the 200-day SMA. Downside momentum remains a concern.
We maintain a profit target at R345.00 and a trailing stop loss at R288.00. |
Price action holding above key support remains of interest, with levels sustained above the 200-day SMA.
We maintain a profit target at R261.00 and a trailing stop-loss at R228.00. |
| Time to exit | 29 October 2025 | 27 October 2025 | 19 January 2026 |
| Share Name and Position | GRT - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|
| Entry | 13.22 |
| Current Price | 14.96 |
| Movement | +13.2% |
| Comment |
Trades ex-dividend on 15 October 2025. Price action remains within one of the highest bins of the price distribution analysis and above the 200-day SMA. Upside momentum has regained strength, supporting the strategy.
We maintain a profit target at R16.00 with a trailing stop loss at R13.35. |
| Time to exit | 17 November 2025 |
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